General election and shizz.

On tuesday night, I attended a talk/debate at my university (City University London) which involved a panel of 3 political journalists discussing their views on who will win the next election, what the decisive factors will be.

The panel was made up of: Cheif Political columnist for the Independent Steve Richards, Writer of The Times' "Redbox" blog Tim Coates, and political writer of the Evening Standard and alumni of City University Pippa Crerar. They were asked to talk for 5 minutes on their views as to what will happen from now until the election, and finish by predicting the percentages each main party (Lib Dem, Labour, Tory) would recieve. This is detailed below:

Pippa Crerar: She started off talking about the biscuit fiasco, saying Gordon Brown did not want to alienate fans of particular biscuits (a very decisive issue indeed...). She then went on to say that she still though people were unsure about what David Cameron and the Conservatives actually stand for, and that Cameron must persuade the electorate that they want all the immediate spending cuts he promised in his conference speech. However, she thought that it was still too late for Brown to come back and win, but that it was not a certainty that the Tories would get a majority government, and the possibility of a hung parliament was still there. In this instance, she predicted that the Lib Dems would go into coalition with the Conservatives so as to distance themselves from what went before. Her Percentages: CON 42 LAB 33 LIB 18

Steve Richards: Again, biscuits was the lift off point, and he used this analogy to make the point that Brown was "a mix of a lofty interlectually and a crazed journalist". He stated that Blair had always commented on his being right about what the media would pick up on in his speeches (with some excellent impressions to boot) and because of this he is always thinking about the headlines. For example, when asked "Are you enjoying being Prime Minister?" he cannot answer "Yes" for fear of the newspapers saying "BROWN ENJOYS MISERY OF CREDIT CRUNCH BRITAIN". Hence he dithers and says "I just get up at 5, do my job etc..." Richards also thought that Brown was very aware that since the early 90s his popularity with the British public had oscillated wildly, so that maybe he was thinking another up was due. But he also said that the only way Labour could survive was if the Economy went up. Regarding Cameron, he thought that he shouldn't be worried that people are less excited about change now than they were when Blair was elected, because hype eventually leads to disappointment, and that he can take more risks because it's fairly certain he will be the next PM. His predictions: CON 39 LAB 32 LIB 21

Sam Coates - Journalism is all about Predictions. Not sure that is quite true, but it definetly is a huge part of it. Coates decided for his 5 minutes to detail two senarios, a boring one and an exciting one. The boring one consists of: Media say Labour are dead, there's a second huge wave of anger over MPs expenses concentrating on mortgages over which MPs fight back, Labour try a social mobility campaign (which Coates describes as their codeword for "Class War"), Conservatives promise a cut in National Insurance, the election is the worst covered (media-wise) ever, polls stay the same and Cameron wins, there's a lack of enthusiasum over voting, the internet changes nothing, the BNP does quite well, Gordon Brown steps down and Ed Milliband takes his place (and breathe). The exciting senario now: George Osbournes expenses turn out to be very dodgy, standards comittee say apology and slap on wrist but Cameron must decide whether to sack him or not, there is a grass roots Labour revolt, Mandelson tries to stop it but fails and Brown steps down, making way for Ed Milliband who stumbles and doesn't do anything, ISRAEL BOMB IRAN, and this divides the Conservative party between those who oppose the action and those who support it, 2 Lib Dem MPs join the Conservatives, David Davies joins the Lib Dems because thw Conservatives have failed to stand up for civil liberties, but Conservatives still win. Right. His prediction: CON 40 LAB 30 LIB 18.

The rest of the evening was comprised of questions coming from the audience about what might change the course of the election. This included a plea from Sam Coates regarding the use of twitter, "Please, no more twitter," was basically the quote. We also heard how youtube would be a bigger influence, because politicians can be filmed saying bad things (see: Alan Duncan joking about the expenses "scandal", though if you actually want to see it find it yourself), the turnout is all important as really very few people will switch and that Labour's frontbench is lacking in talent.

There were other nuggets of wisdom, but this blog is getting long again, so we'll jump to the end where we heard what each person would tell the party leaders if they were advisers:

Sam Coates - Brown should keep his mouth shut other than talking about 3 main policies which he thinks will help gain voters. Cameron shouln't take too many risks and should control his interaction with Journalists

Steve Richards - Brown should use his sense of humour (because he does have one) and have his team around him to show it isn't just him they're voting for.

Pippa Crerar: a mix of what the others said. Brown should use his team. Cameron should reign in Boris a bit.